This contest has produced some huge totals in recent seasons. At Sharjah in 2020, Rahul Tewatia played an iconic innings to help Rajasthan Royals chase down 224. At the Wankhede in 2021, Punjab Kings scored 221 but won by only four runs. Ground dimensions and pitch conditions were key factors in those high-scoring matches, and their clash in Guwahati could go the same way.
In October 2022, India and South Africa scored a total of 458 runs for the loss of only six wickets in a T20I in Guwahati. While both Royals and Kings scored big and won their opening fixtures this season, Sanju Samson’s men are at full strength, while Shikhar Dhawan’s Punjab have to play without Liam Livingstone once again.
Despite Livingstone’s absence, the Kings batters went hard from the start during their fixture against Kolkata Knight Riders. Dhawan played anchor while the others were explosive around him. The challenge will be to repeat that against a much-stronger bowling attack.
Wednesday’s game will also be the first time the IPL moves to north-east India. In 2020, the Royals, who have a long-standing partnership with Assam Cricket Association, were supposed to play in Guwahati, but Covid-19 ruined those plans.
Team news: No Livingstone, but Rabada’s in
Livingstone is still awaiting fitness clearance from the ECB and has not yet arrived in India, but Kagiso Rabada has joined the Punjab squad after completing South Africa’s ODI series against Netherlands on April 2. If Rabada is ready to go, he will replace Nathan Ellis in the XI. The only doubt for Royals is West Indies fast bowler Obed McCoy, who is still nursing an injury.
Toss and Impact Player strategy
Rajasthan Royals
Possible bat-first XI: 1 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 2 Jos Buttler, 3 Sanju Samson (capt, wk), 4 Devdutt Padikkal, 5 Shimron Hetmyer, 6 Riyan Parag, 7 Jason Holder, 8 R Ashwin, 9 Trent Boult, 10 KM Asif, 11 Yuzvendra Chahal.
Royals subbed out Jaiswal for Impact Player Navdeep Saini during their defence against Sunrisers. Royals could repeat that or bring in a different pacer – Sandeep Sharma or Kuldeep Sen.
Possible bowl-first XI: 1 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 2 Jos Buttler, 3 Sanju Samson (capt, wk), 4 Shimron Hetmyer, 5 Riyan Parag, 6 Jason Holder, 7 R Ashwin, 8 Trent Boult, 9 KM Asif, 10 Yuzvendra Chahal, 11 Sandeep Sharma/M Ashwin.
Padikkal could come in as an Impact Player at No. 4 during the chase if Royals bowl first. If Murugan Ashwin gets a game, then he’ll stay on as a lower-order hitter with a fast bowler being subbed out.
Punjab Kings
Possible bat-first XI: 1 Prabhsimran Singh, 2 Shikhar Dhawan (capt), 3 Bhanuka Rajapaksa, 4 Jitesh Sharma (wk), 5 Sikandar Raza, 6 Sam Curran, 7 M Shahrukh Khan, 8 Harpreet Brar, 9 Rahul Chahar, 10 Arshdeep Singh, 11 Kagiso Rabada
Hard-hitting bowling allrounder Rishi Dhawan could be the Impact Player as a lower-order batter. He could replace Rajapaksa and contribute with the ball during the second innings.
Possible bowl-first XI: 1 Prabhsimran Singh (wk), 2 Shikhar Dhawan (capt), 3 Jitesh Sharma (wk), 4 Sikandar Raza, 5 Sam Curran, 6 M Shahrukh Khan, 7 Harpreet Brar, 8 Rishi Dhawan, 9 Rahul Chahar, 10 Arshdeep Singh, 11 Kagiso Rabada.
If Kings are bowling first, they could name only three overseas players in their XI and bring in Rajapaksa as the Impact Player for Arshdeep during the chase.
Kings will be without Raj Bawa for the rest of the season, as he’s out with a left shoulder injury. Pace-bowling Punjab allrounder Gurnoor Brar has been signed as a replacement for INR 20 lakh (USD 24,000 approx.). Twenty-two-year-old Brar is yet to play an official T20.*
Stats that matter
Buttler has had the upper hand in his battles against Rabada. In 11 innings in T20 cricket, Rabada has dismissed Buttler only once, while conceding 96 runs off 56 balls.
Arshdeep keeps Buttler quiet (21 runs conceded off 20 balls) but is expensive against Samson (49 runs off 26 balls).
Royals could consider bowling Ashwin early to Dhawan. In 13 innings, Dhawan has a strike rate of only 88 against Ashwin – 85 runs off 97 balls – and has been dismissed four times.
Since IPL 2022, Royals have a 100% success rate of defending totals of 190+. Trent Boult’s ability of taking wickets in the first over has certainly helped their defence. Boult has 17 first-over wickets since IPL 2020; the second-best – Jofra Archer – has only five.
Pitch and conditions
Both fast bowlers and spinners could struggle in Guwahati, which is usually a batting-friendly surface with medium-sized boundaries. Humid conditions are expected with a small chance of rain in the evening.
*The preview was updated after news of Raj Bawa’s injury came in.
Sreshth Shah is a sub-editor at ESPNcricinfo. @sreshthx
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